Finding Oscar Winners the Statistical way

Many film critic associations give out their awards to Best Picture, Actor etc. every year. Some of these associations are small and some are very large. Some look only at animation or writing whilst others look at all the award categories that the Academy looks at. Although each association nominate and award the film or actor that they think deserves their honour that year some of the results can be very similar to the awards given out by the Academy.
I have collated all the major award results over the last five years and checked these against the Oscars. Some perform better in predicting the Best Picture than the Best Actress where others excel in predicting the Best Animated Feature Film. I have measured this success and devised a points system, based on each association's five year track record, to allow a good prediction of the winners of each category. When all the precursor awards are in we will have the predictions for this year's Academy Awards.
2008 was a great success with 70% of the top ranked actually winning the Oscar. Let's hope 2009 will have equal or even better success.

Awards In

Annie Awards
Austin Film Critics Association
BAFTA
Boston Society of Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critic Association
Chicago Film Critics Association
Dallas Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Directors Guild of America
Florida Film Critics Circle
Golden Globes
Las Vegas Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
Phoenix Film Critics
Producers Guild Association
San Diego Film Critics Society
San Francisco Film Critics
Satellite
Screen Actors Guild
Southeastern Film Critics
St Louis Film Critics Association
Writers Guild of America

Quiz Now Available ....

Oscar Quiz - Why not test your knowledge on either Oscar Recent History or Oscars 2009?

New Predictions Available ....

New Predictions - Oscarpred's predictions for several other categories for this years awards.

The Results So Far... (Latest at top)

BAFTA - Last year BAFTA were the only group to correctly predict all four acting Oscars. Will this continue this year?
Writers Guild of America - These guys normally point straight to the Oscar winners.
Directors Guild fo America - The race for Best Director and Best Picture quite often is called to an end once the DGA give their awards out. Will they be as successful this year?
Annie Awards - Normally the winner of the Best Animation award at the Annies wins the Oscar. Will it this year?
Screen Actors Guild - One of the best guides for the acting Oscars. Who has got the vital edge now?

Will these take the big awards in 2009?

I Think So.